Iran

Let's talk reasonably.

What the fuck are we gonna do? I mean, if it is found they're building nukes, just what the fuck are we gonna do? One word answer: nothing.

Know why? Because they have a lot of oil.

Have you heard all the saber-rattling over the past couple weeks? I hear words bandied about. 'Security Council', 'sanctions', 'instability in the region', 'regime change'. That's all it is, words. Have you noticed the price of oil going up over the past couple weeks; a 4 month high yesterday by the way? That's just because of the saber-rattling and one oil platform going down off the Nigerian coast. I'm not the only one who's noticed.

People see what's happened in Iraq, how the U.S. has botched the occupation and the response to the insurgecy. What do you think will happen if the Iranian fields meet the same fate as the Iraqi oil infrastructure? You'll see $5 - $7 dollar/gallon gas in no time, maybe going even higher. Do you think the American economy would survive that? I doubt it, the domino effect on other sectors would be catastrophic.

Bush might be an idiot, but his people must know what could happen should we (or the Europeans at our behest, don't laugh) attack Iran. I doubt you'll see anything more than toothless sanctions and a lot of bluster at the U.N. The war in Iraq has emasculated the United States and the Iranians (and the rest of the world) know it. Saber-rattling by the Bush administration means next to nothing anymore. If anything good has come out of Iraq, I believe, is that people might be a little more cautious before allowing their President to go to war for anything other than obvious national defense.

Update:

Digby's thinking is along the same lines.