Post Sharon

Ariel Sharon's stroke last night changed the face of Israeli politics in an instant. The Head Heeb has an excellent essay up on the effects of the sudden power vacuum created when Sharon went down.

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And then there's the potential spillover to the other election - the one in the Palestinian Authority. Israeli and Palestinian politics have been inextricably intertwined for years, and never more so than now. Sharon's disability is bound to affect the Palestinian electoral balance; the only question is how. The Palestinians might view the situation as a political opening - they remember Sharon less for the Gaza withdrawal than for the settlements and Sabra-Shatila, and a conciliatory centrist like Olmert or an unknown quantity like Livni might carry less emotional baggage and spur the hope of a return to negotiations. In that event, Fatah might benefit at the polls. On the other hand, if the Palestinian electorate sees a moment of Israeli weakness, or if it looks like Kadima is collapsing and Netanyahu is gaining the upper hand, then the spoils might go to Hamas.

So there we have it - a single stroke has created a multitude of unknown quantities. Two weeks from now, Israel might still be in a three-way race between Avoda, Likud and an only-somewhat-weakened Kadima, or it might be facing an uncertain Peretz-Bibi battle with the center fading and political fragmentation returning with a vengeance. The mercurial Palestinian electorate, for its part, could swing toward either moderation or radicalism. The one thing in which there will be some guarantee of continuity is the caretaker government, where Olmert's experience and moderation will provide the country with a steady hand. But that is the only blessing that Israel can count on tonight.

For those who say Israeli politics doesn't affect us, think again. As my man Lurch says, with Bush in office, the mission of the U.S. is to protect Israel to the last man. Believe it.