Election Prediction

From the radical, Liberal, bomb-throwing left-wing Bloomberg:

Barring an unexpected and big event, Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November and conceivably the Senate, too. Whether it's a tsunami or just a powerful wave, the political dynamics are moving in that direction, or more accurately, against the Republicans and President George W. Bush.

Democratic insiders, who months ago thought their chances of winning a majority in the House were no better than even, and that the Senate was a lost cause, have become far more optimistic. Now, they say, winning the House is a lock, and the Senate is within reach.

'People Are Angry'

I think that may qualify for 'understatement of the year'!

Privately, Republican congressional leaders are bracing to lose 20 to 30 House seats -- more than the net 15 gain that Democrats need to take control of that chamber -- and to barely hold on to their Senate majority.

A Dem Senate would be the icing on the cake.

The most important difference -- and the reason the White House desperately hopes to avoid a Democratic House -- will be much more aggressive oversight. With tough lawmakers like Dingell of Michigan and Henry Waxman of California setting oversight agendas, defense contractors such as Halliburton Co., eavesdroppers at the national security and intelligence agencies and anti-environmentalists at the Interior Department will be in for a rough few years.

Heh. They have no idea!

To be certain, the party's confidence is occasionally tempered by the realities of recent elections. At a private gathering sponsored by Democratic House Leader Pelosi for some of the party's biggest givers in California early this month, there was a palpable sense that Karl Rove and the White House will engineer some "October surprise."

And Republicans, with a better get-out-the-vote system, generally tend to close better in American elections. But October surprises usually are the invention of summer nervous nellies; the public mood, not organization, will shape this year's elections.

Maybe so, but I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. The most dangerous, unpredictable animal is one who's cornered.

November.

California may get Universal Health Care

EssEffChron

The Democratic-controlled Legislature is on the verge of sending Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger a bill that would create a state-run universal health care system, testing him on an issue that voters rate as one of their top concerns in this election year.

On a largely party-line 43-30 vote, the Assembly approved a bill by state Sen. Sheila Kuehl, D-Santa Monica, that would eliminate private medical insurance plans and establish a statewide health insurance system that would provide coverage to all Californians. The state Senate has already approved the plan once and is expected this week to approve changes that the Assembly made to the bill.

If he vetoes SB840, the governor will be reminded of his decision come election day in November, Kuehl said.

"I hope that the people of California will hang the albatross of bad health care around the governor's neck," she said.

"SB840 creates a system of comprehensive health insurance benefits for all Californians that guarantees free choice of doctors and hospitals," Kuehl said. "It creates access for all Californians by steeply reducing administrative overhead and emphasizing preventative and primary care instead of endlessly cutting coverage and access to care or increasing consumer spending."

Republicans and insurance groups oppose the bill, saying it will create an inefficient government bureaucracy.

As opposed to greedy inefficient insurance companies, I suppose?

California likes to lead the way. This would be a good way not only to do the right thing but to help figure out how to do it nationwide.

Sign the bill, Ah-nold.

Just as an aside, State Senator Sheila Kuehl used to play Zelda on The Many Loves of Dobie Gillis. You have to be really old to remember that one...

Okay...

Now that this idiot who confessed to the JonBenet klling has been cleared, do you think the news media can go back over the stories they deemed to be less of a priority, like the situation in Iraq going down hill by the day?

The American news media, bigger whores than Republicans.

A reminder ...

You folks who want me to highlight a House race in your state, drop me an email or leave a comment in one of my recent 'Local races ...' posts. I want the House this November goddammit!

And just an additional note. Rahm Emmanuel is an idiot, a wanker, and a moron, and I want somebody else running the DCCC.

Katrina. Shakes. Blogswarm.

I saw Shakes pushing this out of the corner of my eye for a while now and somehow (with the elections coming up and being swamped at the shop) it just never got moved to the front burner (God I need a vacation). Sorry Sis. Fortunately a whole host of others picked up the ball as I fumbled. I can at least tell you to go there now.

Daily Dave

I highlighted this Newsday article about Rep. Peter King's endorsement of racial profiling. Today Dave talks. The Mejias campaign alerted me to an article the candidate posted on MyDD this morning:

In a recent Newsday article, Peter King endorsed a proposal to base our airport security on a full-scale racial profiling program. This is a cheap election year stunt aimed at motivating King's ultra-conservative base, NOT at increasing security. The security of our country is a serious problem that requires significant thought and practical answers. King has repeatedly shown that he cares little for coming up with a real solution.

Then, Peter King (probably stung by the criticism he received) dramatically reversed himself. During an appearance on Fox News Sunday, King's new opinion was that airport screeners should merely take into account a person's ethnicity as part of the threat equation in combination with displayed behavioral characteristics. His initial position followed by his subsequent flip-flop further proves that King, the Chairman of the Homeland Security Committee, has no serious solutions for our nation's flawed security procedures.

...

Despite his rhetoric, Peter King has only delivered security failures and disappointments to the residents of New York. In addition to his support for racial profiling, funding for New York's security and anti terrorism efforts have been cut by 40% under King's watch and he failed to get the Republican Congress to support a budget increase of formula-based anti-terrorism grants for high threat and high density areas. All of these failures prove that Peter King is ineffective, irrelevant or asleep at the switch in Congress.

Peter King has said he is planning to run his campaign on his homeland security credentials. He may want to reconsider. [my emphases]

Dave Mejias
Democrat for Congress, NY-03
DaveForAmerica.com
Donate to my campaign through ActBlue

Vote for Dave in November. Do you live in NY-03?

Plan B

There's a great little post over at Needlenose about Plan B and how it's gonna make certain wingnut heads pop.They are SO in a corner on this one.HeeHee.(h/t to the fine Americans at Crooks and Liars for the link).

Broken Promises

Paul Krugman on Katrina's first anniversary.

Last September President Bush stood in New Orleans, where the lights had just come on for the first time since Katrina struck, and promised "one of the largest reconstruction efforts the world has ever seen." Then he left, and the lights went out again.

And so it is along our own Gulf Coast. The Bush administration likes to talk about all the money it has allocated to the region, and it plans a public relations blitz to persuade America that it's doing a heck of a job aiding Katrina's victims. But as the Iraqis learned, allocating money and actually using it for reconstruction are two different things, and so far the administration has done almost nothing to make good on last year's promises.

It's true that tens of billions have been spent on emergency relief and cleanup. But even the cleanup remains incomplete: almost a third of the hurricane debris in New Orleans has yet to be removed. And the process of going beyond cleanup to actual reconstruction has barely begun.

Apologists for the administration will doubtless claim that blame for the lack of progress rests not with Mr. Bush, but with the inherent inefficiency of government bureaucracies. That's the great thing about being an antigovernment conservative: even when you fail at the task of governing, you can claim vindication for your ideology.

But bureaucracies don't have to be this inefficient. The failure to get moving on reconstruction reflects lack of leadership at the top.

Please read the rest. Then go see Bob Schieffer sound off on this, with a reference to a different reconstruction zone.

The 9/11 Report: Pow! R-rumble...

The 9/11 Commission Report has been put in a 'Graphic Adaptation' aka 'comic book' form. I think it's a good idea, as it makes it easier to read. As us Marines say, "Pictures! Lotsa pictures!"

With my own ears, I heard former Governor and Commission Chair Thomas Kean say they got it right.

Slate has the whole thing.

Men

My son is coming up with his own testicle jokes now. He'll be 13 in the spring. It hit me this summer that I can actually almost wear some of his clothes.Any day now I'm going to have to look up at him to see his gorgeous face. This summer he crossed over forever into the menswear department,no more boy's size clothes or shoes. WTF happened to the time? While I was slogging through all the day to day hell with this kid(his first few years were really HARD.Once we figured out that he is autistic,life got lots easier because we learned how to handle things)it seemed like forever.In retrospect,the time has flown. Holy Crap. Holy FREAKING Crap.

Anyhoo,onto the testicle joke and enough of my parental anxiety.

My son's dentist has a big gumball machine next to the receptionist's desk. Instead of gumballs,the thing is filled with those little hard rubber balls that bounce really high when you fling them against any hard surface. When a kid gets done with their appt,they go to the front desk and ask for a quarter for the machine.We must have at least 2 dozen of those little balls around the house and in the yard and the pool.Not counting all the ones I've thrown away because they've been used to annoy the snot out of me.

On this particular dentist appt day(Atilla had reconstructive dentistry this summer,we had many appts),the kiddo got two balls when he put his quarter in the machine.You see where this is going don't you?

So we're driving home and Atilla is trying to juggle in the car.I told him to knock it off until we got home,he was elbowing me and stuff. I have one car rule(well,two,seatbelts are the other one),Don't Fuck with the Driver.Especially when it's me driving.

Off in my peripheral vision I see the kid look straight at me and he says:

"What's the matter Mom?Shouldn't I be PLAYING WITH MY BALLS in the car? I guess I'll have to put MY BALLS away until I get home,then I can BE ALONE WITH MY BALLS,in my room?Is that what you're saying Mom?"

Smartass. Common Parental Wisdom(tm) says you shouldn't laugh at this stuff because it only reinforces and encourages it. But funny is funny. My boy's first testicle joke(to me at least),is there a Hallmark Card for that milestone? Ahh,those Mother/Son moments...(((she sighs,wistfully)))

Because of this,and more incidents like it than I can count,I've come to think that men have two main life stages after childhood.

Stage one starts at the early teens and ends sometime around age 30. At this point,men are quite similar to year old black lab or golden retriever pups. Goofy,rather clumsy and a bit(or alot)awkward,full of piss and vinegar and boundless energy,rarely serious,and have a need to be paid attention to,except when they're sleeping. They always seem to be hungry too. Usually they're cute enough that you can't stay mad at them for long. Usually.

Stage two is Bears With Furniture*(and pants,sometimes,if you're lucky). Bears With Furniture tend to do lots of scratching,farting,and have stomachs that make noises that have no business coming from mammals. Don't even get me started on various odors they leave around the house. Alot of them like reclining chairs and remote controlled anything. Their hobbies tend to be either loud or expensive,or both. But they are cuddly, which kind of makes up for messy and goofy.Sometimes.

I have one of each and no female backup. One thing I've learned is to pick my battles to preserve my sanity.But even then there are times where my grip is tenuous at best. Let's just say a lesser woman would have either run for the hills screaming,never to return,OR,she'd be drinking,heavily. That I've resorted to neither(though both have crossed my mind,alot)means I'm either brave or crazy,I haven't decided which.

*Bears With Furniture I believe came from a comedy bit by Rita Rudner.Who,if I remember correctly,was a comic from NYC.Is she still around?She was kinda funny,never really made it too big though.

Local races ...

Granny in Montana directs me to Monica Lindeen's campaign:

...

When asked why she thinks Rehberg and the current Congress are vulnerable, Lindeen said: "Pick an issue."

"The rising cost of gasoline, the rising cost of health care, the Red Sea of debt that this Congress is leaving for our children," she said. "Montanans are concerned about it. They know they're getting the short end of the stick.

"This man says that he's a fiscal conservative. How can he look anyone in the eye in the state of Montana and say he's a fiscal conservative?"

She raps Rehberg for opposing any increases in the federal minimum wage - until last week, when it was paired with an estate-tax reduction. [Link]

...

Lindeen for Congress

Monica's ActBlue page

Do you live in MT-01?

Addendum: If you know of a House race I should highlight, drop me an email or leave a comment on one of the 'Local races ...' posts.

Double standards

Remember when the Right attacked Jill Carroll when she was abducted and made forced statements?

I wonder what they'll say about Centanni? *crickets*

Housekeeping

Since Labor Day is fast approaching, it's time for the new Uniform of the Day. Back to Woodland camo for the Fall.

And another housekeeping note. I put the hit count up on the Site Meter because we're getting close to 100,000 hits. I'm debating a prize for the 100,000th person and at the rate we're going, it'll take a few more weeks. I'll think about it. Maybe if I still have those pictures I took of my ex ... Heh ... Bad idea. I can hear AOB yellin' at me already ...

Quote of the Day

Laurie:

Bush has announced that pulling out of Iraq now would bring about "disaster." Because all is well in the midst of our occupation. *blink*

Local races ...

Via Jesus' General. Darcy Burner is running in Washington-08:

...

"We are at a very dangerous moment in the American experience. We are under attack by forces outside of this country: Terrorists who are focused entirely on killing Americans and destroying this country. And we are under attack from the inside, by an administration and a majority in Congress that would destroy those things that the American people have fought for and won over the last 215 years."

...

Darcy Burner, Democrat for Congress

Do you live in WA-08?

Darcy's ActBlue page.

Update:

You see why I'm pushing the House races this year? The Rothenberg Report via Pensito Review:

Our latest race-by-race review of Congressional districts around the country convinces us that a Democratic wave is building and that the party is poised to take control of the House of Representatives in the fall. The only question now is the size of the November wave.

The national mood remains bleak for Republicans. President George W. Bush's job performance ratings are terrible, and the public still gives Congress low marks. A majority of Americans continue to tell pollsters that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

...

We can do this.

Navel gazing

When the Lefty bloggers become the bogeyman of the Right, you know they're scared. TCF:

...

There's a very good reason the Lefty blogsphere has become the bane of the Right's existence from, yes, Joe Liberman, Bill O'Reilly and future Viagra spokesman Rush Limbaugh. The Right blogs speak hypocrisy in defense of the Bush administration and the Congressional Republicans. Yet, the newfound power of Liberal and Progressive blogs is the result of successfully speaking truth to power.

...

Good.

Godwin's Law*

I've related some of my mother's stories (here, here, and here) about Germany during the time Hitler's power was growing and pointed out how analogous they were to events happening today in America. Sorry to say, but there's nothing else to call it**. The U.S. is fast becoming a Fascist state.

Update:

Obviously a regular Brain reader.

Pic courtesy of Pam.

*Godwin's Law: As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one. ^[1]

**Great thanks to Sumo for the link.

Pump up the fear ...

Election Day is near* ...

Dave Johnson noticed, as I'm sure the rest of you have, the frequency of 'terror' stories on the news lately.

*Probably my first and only attempt at poetry here at the Brain.

This is still America

And while I don't want to hear anything about God from people, I support their right to believe whatever they damn well please. If it works for ya, fine with me. Just don't expect me at your meetings or whatever you call your get togethers. Living in New York, you meet people who'll worship just about anything and that's fine, but the one thing I don't get are these guys:

NEW YORK (AP) -- Saying he's "as Jewish as a matzo ball or kosher salami," Jackie Mason filed a lawsuit against Jews for Jesus for using his name and likeness in a pamphlet.

...

Jews for Jesus. Being married into a Jewish family, I just don't understand the rationale. And just an additional note, the Metropolitan Transit Authority sued them too*, for appropriating the logos of the NYC Subway System. Seems to me, these guys ain't too bright to begin with.

Tip o' the Brain to our pal Seth for the link.

Update:

But what really scares me are these folks (read 'comments' too), probably nice people all, but yeesh.

Just a note: I found this link while I was going over site stats. I guess somebody got to the Brain via the 'Next Blog' button on the Blogger bar, that we don't have here (I hate that fucking thing). I'm certain this lady didn't link to us. Heh ...

*Link added after the fact.

Life during wartime ...

[With apologies to Gilliard, and the Talking Heads, but I'm stealing the whole thing. - Fixer]

Take a look at the pictures below*.

Somewhere, some son or daughter of the Beltway upper classes is either sneaking out of an apartment after furtive, drunken sex, playing Evercrack or sleeping off a boozy night.

They will spend Sunday over eggs and coffee, maybe watch a Nationals game, hop in the SUV and head to a mall, enjoying the end of the fetid Washington summer and do some shopping. Maybe they'll settle in for some midday sex or smoke a bowl of weed or run or any of the myraid of things that well off people do on Sundays.

Other people, people without such luxuries, will wake up, with rank, sweaty clothing, sore, because concrete makes anyone sore. The smell of piss fills the air. Sleep wasn't much, but you can't not sleep, even if it's miserably hot.

You spit out a little warm water because you'll wait to brush your teeth. A million years ago, you used Mentadent. But the plastic container is way too bulky to follow you here, so it's Colgate, what you used as a kid. And then you bury it so it won't explode in your gear, fucking it up. You shouldn't really have it, but you can't shave, there is no hot food, so the one luxury, beside that bible your uncle gave you, the one he had in Vietnam, is toothpaste.

You stand up, in a room you share with other stinking bodies, none over 24, because it's your turn to watch that street.

When Clint Eastwood did it, in the movies, it was cool, watching the street for bad guys. Now, it isn't cool, it is a deadly business. It is your life in microseconds. The wrong person, with the wrong weapon, and you could no longer exist.

You look at every alley, every gust of wind. It may be quiet in other places, but here, the bad guys, who in your quiet moments think aren't all that different than you, may pop up and start the day up with some gunfire, maybe a rocket.

This is your Sunday, it was your Saturday and it will be your Monday, when you get relieved and get a shower and hope the Halliburton food doesn't make you sick again.

And then there are the people who live in total fear. Who will shoot at you today, the Sadrists, the guerrillas, the police, the Americans, the contractors who have no law. Who will you have to fear today.

At least the Americans can go back to their bunkers and bases and sleep. Last week, some men took the people down the block out and shot them. Dead. Everyone. They were Shia, but who knows why? A crooked business deal, a death squad, who knows? All you can do is live and hope you don't get that knock on the door.

You have no base to go to, no place to hide. All you can do is run your errands, pray to be safe and hope for the best, the best meaning everyone in your house lives to the next sunrise.You aren't going for any run, not if you want to live. Anyone can shoot a running man.

Some days, you think you can stick it out, that it will get better. But some days, you want to leave. Life on the moon must be better.

And then, your sister's daughter never mentions her job. She speaks English, learned it at univesity. They have money, but is she working for the Americans? Is she that stupid? There are people who watch, who make notes. She hopes she isn't that stupid, because you don't know who that could kill.

Sunday. Some people get to rest, some don't.

*[Pic link here.]