A controversial oil exploration deal between Iraq's autonomy-minded Kurds and a Norwegian company got underway this week without the approval of the central government here, raising a potentially explosive issue at a time of heightened ethnic and sectarian tensions.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party, which controls a portion of the semiautonomous Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq, last year quietly signed a deal with Norway's DNO to drill for oil near the border city of Zakho. Iraqi and company officials describe the agreement as the first involving new exploration in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.
Drilling began after a ceremony Tuesday, during which Nechirvan Barzani, prime minister of the Kurdish northern region, vowed "there is no way Kurdistan would accept that the central government will control our resources," (my em) according to news agency reports.
"This is unprecedented," said Alaa Makki, a leader of the Iraqi Islamic Party, a Sunni Arab group. "It's like they are an independent country. This is Iraqi oil and should be shared with all the Iraqi partners."
I don't think the Kurds give a rat's ass about "all the Iraqi partners". There are Kurds in every nation that borders Northern Iraq, and in every nation they are looked down upon and suppressed as a minority. They really, really want to consolidate all their people into one nation, which is not in the best interests of neighboring countries, Turkey in particular.
Here's how I think it might go down as soon as the U.S. pulls out:
Iraq will split into three nations. Southern Iraq will become the West Iranian Theocratic Mullah's Republic (they'll figure out a name for it later). Central Iraq will become a more secular Shiite democracy of sorts, largely Sunni-free due to revenge genocide. It won't amount to much, and may go with Iran eventually. This split will come about as soon as the current civil war is allowed to blossom by our departure. Have at it boys, it's yours to do. It'll be a bloody three-way motherfucker but I think in the end it'll come out the way it comes out. OK by me, whatever.
The Kurdish Peshmerga are tough, nationalistic, highly motivated soldiers. They will give their all for their own nation of Kurdistan after centuries of suppression by a string of dominant powers. They have like-minded political leadership. I think they are perfectly capable of sealing their own border from incursions from their southern flank. They may have some internal dissent from Arabs who don't want to go along with the program, but the Arabs will lose. They'll move south or die, or live with it.
I think the Kurds are smart enough not to fuck with Turkey's borders, but Syria will lose territory after a short war. I'm not sure about Iran, but there may be a war there as well. The end result will be a larger, clearly defined Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. I'm on the Kurds' side (that oughta do it for 'em!) and I wish them well. They're the one group we've helped out over there in fifty years that deserves it.
Kurdistan, not Iraq, may become the force for Democracy in the Middle East. I hope so.
This process will take years and a lot of nasty business, but it may be the only good thing to inadvertently come out of Bush's War. Like diggin' through six feet of shit under an outhouse to find a ham sandwich.
Update:
Read Robert Parry on "Bush in Iraq, Slouching Toward Genocide". Damn, I'm good!
No comments:
Post a Comment