Thursday, July 6, 2006

War Not Lieberman's Only Problem at Home

Following up on Fixer's post, Real Clear Politics sums it up pretty good:

Joe Lieberman may need more than another political party. He may need another state, as well.

The received wisdom is often wrong. Polls showing Lieberman with a commanding lead in the general election were taken at a time when his opponent was called "Ned Lamont who?" The gap continually narrows as voters learn that Lamont is a serious alternative.

The contest has been framed as a vote on the Bush administration's conduct of the Iraq war, which Lieberman has slavishly defended -- more than some of his Republican colleagues, notably Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel. And while the war is highly unpopular in Connecticut, that's not Lieberman's only rift with his electorate. On social issues, Lieberman plays to a Bible Belt audience, which his voters are not. That would include many of the state's generally moderate Republicans.

No, Lieberman doesn't have a lock on the Republican and independent voters of Connecticut. An election, after all, boils down to making a choice. The more people see that they have a reasonable alternative in Lamont -- that there's someone they can vote for, not just against -- the worse it will be for Lieberman.

Much more. Go read.

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