"There are some signs that the housing party is ending," said Christopher Thornberg, senior economist at the UCLA group and author of its California forecast.
Thornberg points to an almost doubling of homes on the market in the last six months, a flattening of sales activity and the increasing reliance on high-risk mortgages by buyers to acquire today's expensive homes. Property in California, he said, is now overvalued between 40% and 45%.
"The forecast for California is mediocre at best; at worst we are liable to dip into another recession," Thornberg said, putting the odds of a recession by the end of 2007 at "at least 50% if not more."
I get a joyful vision of a reverse Dust Bowl migration: Overloaded cars with California plates heading east, never to return. Adios. Take Ah-nold with you.
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