Writing in today's Le Monde, Rémy Ourdan sees Falluja as a major battle simply waiting. Some new facts. On the order of 1,500 Arab fighters are present in Falluja. On the order of 90% of the women, children and elderly have left Falluja for Baghdad or the towns surrounding Falluja. On the order of 80% of the men of fighting age of Falljua are now under arms.
There are 83 minarets (mosques) and 120,000 residences in Falluja.
Will Bush order the attack before November 2nd, or will he order the attack after November 2nd, and will the outcome of November 2nd matter?
The smart money (Juan Cole) is that Bush will wait until after November 2nd to flatten Falluja. My guess is that Bush won't wait. He just lost Ohio (Nader's off the ballot), and the newest numbers show he's lost Maine too, and he's a high-risk gambler.
Back when MB and the kids and I were enjoying the quiet of Disneyworld the week after 9/11, the radio was alive with chatter about follow-on attacks. I didn't give it a moment's thought. Use or lose, and holding some part of the attack inventory while the feds went non-linear and bagged every Arab under every bed was a recipe for "lose".
I think the same is true of the Bush-Cheney-Rumsford-Wolfowitz-Rice-Feith-Scooter-Hadley-Bolton-Luti-Fowler-(Perle)-Negroponte-(Bremer)-Garner gang of terrorists. The effects, domestic and Iraqi, are certain if the order is given before the end of the month, and uncertain after the third day of next month.
It is use or lose, and use always trumps lose.
Maybe the October surprise?
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